000
acus01 kwns 200037
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 200035
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Valid 200100z - 201200z
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms tonight for central/northern Montana and
northwestern ND...
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this evening for far eastern nm and
West Texas...
..cntrl/northern Montana into northwestern ND...
Numerous thunderstorms are forming along and ahead of a sharp
surface baroclinic zone located in the Lee of the Montana Front
Range...with other more discrete/isolated thunderstorms...including
a few supercells...moving north-northeastward into central Montana. Airmass across
central/northern Montana is characterized by temperatures in the 80s and
dewpoints in the middle to upper 50s. Given the presence of steep
midlevel lapse rates...MLCAPE values generally exceed 1000 j/kg.
Low-level Ely jet near 30 knots veers to southerly in the midlevels with a 50
knots speed maximum approaching the area. In the short term...the
moderately unstable and strongly sheared environment will support
supercells...storm clusters and a few line segments posing a risk
for large hail/damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.
However...as stronger forcing for ascent and the midlevel speed maximum
associated with a shortwave trough eject north-northeast into the area
tonight...upscale growth into a forward propagating line will be
possible...with the severe threat transitioning mainly to damaging
wind gusts.
..ern nm...West Texas...
outflow boundary laid out by a weakening mesoscale convective system located over northern/central
Texas extends nwwd from sjt to aprox 15 north-northeast of hob. Supercells have
been observed along and to the cool side of this boundary during the
late afternoon/early evening...one of which was possibly tornadic west
of lub. Westerly flow aloft will continue to advect storms over far eastern
nm/far west-central Texas eastward across the cool side of the boundary where
shear is very favorable for rotating storms but the boundary layer
is beginning to stabilize /per 00z Ama raob/. Storms will likely
continue to pose some threat for severe during the next few
hours...but activity is expected to become elevated with time and
decrease in intensity as the night progresses.
.Garner.. 06/20/2013
Mesoscale Discussion
000
acus11 kwns 200034
sels mesoscale discussion
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 200034
txz000-nmz000-200130-
Mesoscale discussion 1134
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Areas affected...E-cntrl/se nm...northwest Texas...SW Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 327...329...
Valid 200034z - 200130z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch
327...329...continues.
Summary...severe threat continues across severe watches 327 and 329.
Primary threat area appears centered over east-central nm and northwest Texas with
severe wind/hail remaining possible.
Discussion...surface analysis and visible satellite imagery reveal at
least two distinguishable boundaries. One is the dryline...located west
of the ongoing thunderstorms across east-central nm and northwest Texas and is demarcated
primarily by cumulus on visible. Some surface observation also reveal backed
surface winds at ats and cnm in southeast nm. The other is an outflow
boundary...previously associated with an mesoscale convective system that moved through far
northwest Texas and the Texas big County this afternoon...that extends from
decaying mesoscale convective system across central Texas westward to sjt then nwwd into east-central nm.
This boundary appears to be focusing weak isentropic ascent and
continued thunderstorm development across east-central nm and the southwestern Texas
Panhandle.
00z Ama sounding revealed an eml which extended to around 750 mb
with a 700 mb temperature around 15 degree c. This warm middle-level environment
does not favor severe development and most of the activity progressing
eastward into the area has dissipated. 00z maf sounding is slightly more
favorable...observing a deeply mixed profile and deeper moisture.
Both soundings observed very steep middle-level lapse rates.
As such...remaining activity is expected to be focused across
east-central nm...northwest Texas...and southwestern Texas Panhandle. Given the profiles
observed by regional radiosonde observations...this activity will likely be elevated
with a primary threat of severe hail/wind. The chance of a tornado is
very low...despite favorable low-level wind profiles.
Additionally...focused nature of the lift will promote locally heavy
rainfall.
.Mosier.. 06/20/2013
..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product...
Attention...WFO...lub...Ama...maf...abq...
Latitude...Lon 32240192 32010286 32110395 33170427 33720434 34200431
34590410 35000362 35110286 35060233 34320137 32960104
32240192
