marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 921 am EDT Sat may 26 2018
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
No significant changes expected in the forecast at this time, as latest model guidance in good agreement with current forecast trends.
Seas...wave guidance within a foot or two of current observations. No changes to the wave grids anticipated at this time.
----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...
Current conditions...the 00z NCEP surface analysis shows a 1000 mb low centered over NW Maine, with an associated low pressure trough extending S to SW across the New England states and over the southern Maine coastal waters. The analysis also indicates a high pressure ridge across the nt2 waters. Latest available ascat and ascat hi-res passes from a few hours ago suggest 15 to 25 kt winds in SW flow over the nt1 area, and 5 to 15 kt winds across the nt2 waters.
Models/forecast...the 00z medium range models are in good agreement across the offshore waters for today through sun, so the representative 00z GFS 10m solution will be used for the wind grids during this timeframe. Will switch to using the 00z ECMWF for Sun night through the rest of the forecast period, since the 00z ECMWF has good overall support from the 00z CMC/UKMET, while the 00z GFS looks too fast. Confidence in the forecast is considered to be average at this time, since the models are still in two camps regarding whether or not there will be a low crossing the central nt2 waters on Tue and Tue night.
Seas...the 00z wna wavewatch and 00z ECMWF wam both initialized well over the coastal and offshore waters versus the latest buoy observations and altimeter data. The models are in close agreement through sun, but for consistency purposes the 00z wna wavewatch will be used for the sea height grids for today through sun, then will go with the 00z ECMWF wam for Sun night through the rest of the forecast period, in order to be consistent with the preferred 00z ECMWF wind grids.
Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Nt1 New England waters... None.
.Nt2 mid-Atlantic waters... None.
.Forecaster achorn/Scovil. Ocean prediction center.