marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 702 PM PDT sun Oct 21 2018
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
The 00z surface analysis indicated a high pressure ridge extending across the Washington and Oregon offshore waters, and the western portion of the California waters. Trough extended along the California coast, with a cold front along 140w. No changes are anticipated for the evening update with the wind or wave grids as the 18z GFS is very close to the 12z run. The current warning headlines also look very good, and see no reason to change at this time. The 00z sea state analysis showed observed seas within a foot of the enp forecast values with highest seas around 7 ft over the Oregon and northern California waters.
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A high pressure ridge west of the pz6 waters continues to combine with a weak low pressure trof along the California and Oregon coasts to produce mainly light winds across most of the offshore waters. Mainly light winds across the offshore waters will continue into tonight and then begin to strengthen somewhat as a cold front approaches the pz5 waters from the west. The cold front will move across the pz5 waters Monday night and Tuesday, followed by another front late Wednesday into Thursday. Both of these fronts should be strong enough to produce some minimal gales across the far northwest portions of the pz5 waters. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF look to be in reasonable agreement across the eastern Pacific through early Thursday.
By Friday the GFS tracks another low northwest of the pz5 waters while the ECMWF builds a ridge across that area. For now will lean more towards the ECMWF after Thursday. For wind grids will use the GFS through early Thursday, then transition to the ECMWF winds. Current warnings look reasonable and few changes should be needed on the next offshore waters forecast.
For wave height grids will also use the enp through early Thursday, then transition to the ECMWF wam.
Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz900...outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale Monday night. Gale possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. .Pzz905...Outer waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale possible Wednesday into Wednesday night.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster kosier/nolt. Ocean prediction center.