Tropical Depression Two

Last Updated: 5/22/2018, 6:00:00 PM (UTC)

  • Location: 10.7 N 56.4 E
  • Movement: NW at 5 mph
  • Wind: 50 mph
  • Pressure: --
Two

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000 
WTIO31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z --- NEAR 10.7N 56.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 56.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 11.7N 56.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 12.7N 56.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 13.9N 55.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 14.7N 55.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 16.0N 54.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 17.6N 53.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 18.6N 51.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 56.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 598 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED 
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION 
IS BASED ON A 221806Z GMI 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP 
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY TO THE 
EAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL 45 KNOT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS 
FAVORABLE OVERALL FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION WITH GOOD 
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (31-32 
CELSIUS). THROUGH TAU 72, TC 02A IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AND STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ALONG THE EDGE OF 
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 02A WILL 
BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTERLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STR BUILDS TO 
THE NORTH. THE CYLCONE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL 
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, GALWEM TRACKS FURTHER TO THE EAST WHILE NAVGEM 
IS SLOWER AND TO THE WEST (IN LATER TAUS) OF THE REST OF THE 
GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK ALIGNS CLOSELY WITH THE CONSENSUS 
TRACK. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK 
DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD PRESENTED BY THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN

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