- Day Three
acus03 kwns 190714
Storm Prediction Center ac 190713
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 am CST Mon Nov 19 2018
Valid 211200z - 221200z
..no thunderstorm areas forecast...
severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.
..synopsis and discussion...
A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move across the
Southern Plains during the period, helping to induce surface
cyclogenesis along the western portion of the remnant frontal zone
extending across the Gulf. However, given that the surface low will
remain offshore, the prospects of thunderstorms along the western or
central Gulf Coast, are low (i.E. Below 10-percent).
Farther west, a deep upper trough is expected to move across the
central West Coast and into the Great Basin during the second half
of the period. Cold temperatures aloft associated with this system
will result in steep lapse rates. A lightning strike or two appears
possible over the water, but overall instability will be limited by
the lack of better low-level moisture and relatively cool
temperatures. Consequently, thunderstorms are not anticipated