U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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acus03 kwns 190714 
swody3 
Storm Prediction Center ac 190713 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0113 am CST Mon Nov 19 2018 


Valid 211200z - 221200z 


..no thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. 


..synopsis and discussion... 
A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move across the 
Southern Plains during the period, helping to induce surface 
cyclogenesis along the western portion of the remnant frontal zone 
extending across the Gulf. However, given that the surface low will 
remain offshore, the prospects of thunderstorms along the western or 
central Gulf Coast, are low (i.E. Below 10-percent). 


Farther west, a deep upper trough is expected to move across the 
central West Coast and into the Great Basin during the second half 
of the period. Cold temperatures aloft associated with this system 
will result in steep lapse rates. A lightning strike or two appears 
possible over the water, but overall instability will be limited by 
the lack of better low-level moisture and relatively cool 
temperatures. Consequently, thunderstorms are not anticipated 
inland. 


.Mosier.. 11/19/2018 


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