U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 251700 
Storm Prediction Center ac 251659 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1059 am CST sun Feb 25 2018 

Valid 261200z - 271200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the 
southeast and Gulf Coast Monday. A few thunderstorms may develop 
near the Bay area later in the day, as well. Organized severe 
weather is not expected. 

..synopsis and discussion... 
With most of the country under the influence of a broad mid-level 
trough, relatively stable low/mid-level conditions are anticipated 
in many locations. Nonetheless, as a sheared impulse traverses the 
Mississippi and Ohio valleys Monday, another round of convection is 
likely to be ongoing to its south. These storms should be focused 
near/along a stalled front stretching from southeastern Louisiana to 
southern Alabama/Georgia. With the passage of the mid/upper system, 
a weak surface wave is forecast to advance towards the southeast US 
coast through the day, with the attendant cold front slowly 
accelerating into the northern Gulf. Along/ahead of the front and 
weak surface low, scattered convection is likely, and an isolated 
storm or two may briefly become strong early in the period, owing to 
residual surface-based buoyancy and vigorous westerly mid-level 
flow. However, the strongest flow will becoming increasingly 
displaced from any substantive buoyancy, likely keeping the threat 
of stronger, organized thunderstorms low. 

Elsewhere, a notable northerly mid/upper jet maximum will drive 
south along the Pacific northwest coast Monday, favoring the 
organization of a closed low that should pass over the Bay area 
during the afternoon and evening. Cold mid-level temperatures and 
steepening lapse rates may support a few updrafts deep enough for 
lightning production. 

.Picca.. 02/25/2018