Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 170600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/170600z-180600zaug2018//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/170154zaug2018//
ref/b/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/170155zaug2018//
ref/c/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/170153zaug2018//
ref/d/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/170521zaug2018//
narr/ref b is a tropical cyclone warning. Refs a and c are tropical
cyclone final warnings. Ref d is a tropical cyclone formation
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 170000z, tropical storm 21w (Rumbia) was located near
31.3n 120.7e, approximately 41 nm west of Shanghai, China, and had
tracked northwestward at 12 knots over the past six hours. Maximum
sustained surface winds were estimated at 45 knots gusting to 55
knots. See ref a (wtpn34 pgtw 170300) for the final warning on this
      (2) at 170000z, typhoon 22w (Soulik) was located near 21.5n
140.9e, approximately 199 nm south of iwo to, and had tracked north-
northwestward at 14 knots over the past six hours.Maximum
significant wave height at 170000z is 19 feet. Maximum sustained
surface winds were estimated at 65 knots gusting to 80 knots. See
ref b (wtpn35 pgtw 170300) for further details.
      (3) at 170000z, tropical storm 20w (Bebinca) was located near
19.4n 105.5e, approximately 99 nm south- southwest of hanoi,
Vietnam, and had tracked west-southwestward at 10 knots over the
past six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 50
knots gusting to 65 knots. See ref c (wtpn33 pgtw 170300) for the
final warning on this system.
      (4) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 91w) previously located
near 13.2n 162.0e is now located near 12.6n 158.3e, approximately
795nm east of Guam. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts
low-level cloud lines wrapping into an exposed low-level circulation
center (LLCC) with isolated deep convection flaring over the
southwest quadrant of the LLCC. A 170240z gmi 36ghz image shows
fragmented banding over the western semicircle and shallow banding
over the eastern semicircle wrapping into a ragged LLCC. Upper-level
analysis indicates a marginally-favorable environment with low to
moderate northerly vertical wind shear offset by poleward outflow
into a TUTT cell positioned to the northeast. SST values are
conducive for further development at 29c. Numerical models indicate
a westward to northwestward track over the next two days with
gradual intensification as the system moves toward the northern
marianas. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20
knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1006 mb.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high. See ref d (wtpn21 pgtw
170530) for further details.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//

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