Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 200600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/200600z-210600zjan2019//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (rmnts 01w) previously located near
6.6n 132.1e, is now located near 8.3n 128.3e, approximately 175 nm
east-northeast of davao city, Philippines. Animated multispectral
satellite imagery and a 190156z 89ghz gmi microwave image depict
flaring, disorganized convection with some midlevel turning above an
obscured, elongated low level circulation. The upper level
environment is overall favorable, with nearly dual channel outflow
slightly offset by some southeasterly inflow. Vertical wind shear is
currently low (10-15kts) but quickly becomes unfavorable ahead of
the system. Sea surface temperatures remain favorable (26-28c) in
this portion of the Philippine Sea. Global models agree on a
scenario with rmnts 01w likely dissipating between tau 24-48 after
interacting with the Philippine Islands and cold northeasterly flow.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1006 mb. The
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours remains medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//

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