Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 162320

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.

...Special features...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward 
across the Caribbean basin during the next 24-48 hours and 
combine with low pressure over Colombia, increasing the pressure 
gradient and winds across the portions of the southwestern 
Caribbean. Gale-force winds are expected to develop by 0600 UTC 
18 Feb from 11.5n-12.5n between 73w-76w. Please refer to the 
latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO 
headers fznt02 knhc/hsfat2, or at website https://www.NHC.NOAA.
Gov/text/miahsfat2.Shtml for more details.

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 07n12w and extends to 
04n16w. The ITCZ continues from 04n16w to the coast of Brazil 
near 03s41w. No significant convection is related to these
features at this time.

Gulf of Mexico...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters. Recent 
scatterometer and surface wind data indicated gentle to moderate  
southerly wind flow across the basin, mainly south of 26n. Winds 
are 10 kt or less north of 26n. A stationary front currently extends
along the Gulf coastline. No significant convection is observed 
across the Gulf waters at this time.

High pressure ridging and return southerly flow will
prevail through Sunday afternoon. The next cold front will move 
into the northwest Gulf while a trough develops in the west-
central Gulf by sun evening. The front will stall from just south 
of the Florida Big Bend to across the northern Gulf to the 
Texas/Mexico border, while the troughing lingers through Mon 
afternoon. The front and trough will shift west on Monday night 
with high pressure prevailing by Tuesday night.

Caribbean Sea...

Please refer to the special features section above for more 
details about the forecast gale event over the south-central 
Caribbean near Colombia.

Scatterometer data and surface observations indicated moderate to 
fresh easterly trade winds over the entire basin. No significant 
convection is noted anywhere in the basin.

Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean 
will increase in the southern Caribbean by early sun due to high 
pressure building north of the area. Strong to near gale force 
winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean Sunday night 
through mid-week, reaching gale-force at nighttime. Fresh to 
strong easterly winds are expected across the Caribbean waters
west of 85w, including the Gulf of Honduras, Sunday through
Wednesday night. 

Atlantic Ocean... 

The basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb 
surface high centered near 31n38w. This pattern maintains gentle 
to moderate winds across the region.

The next cold front will move across the waters north of 29n 
early sun, pushing east of 65w by early Monday. Another cold 
front will move across the waters north of 27n on Monday 
afternoon through Tuesday. Surface ridging and return flow will 
prevail through mid week. 

For additional information please visit 




View All Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones

Category 6

Welcome to Category 6. This is the collective home for Weather Underground's featured writeups by Dr. Jeff Masters (right), Bob Henson (left), Chris Burt, and other regular contributors.

Learn more about and the hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

View All Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Archive

All Atlantic Storms (1851-2019)

Named Storms for 2016

Historical Hurricane Statistics

Articles of Interest