Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 212115

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2042 UTC Wed Feb 21 2018

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

A surface trough extends from 09n83w to 02n94w to 02n102w. The 
ITCZ continues from 02n102w to 03n120w to 07n130w to 08n140w.
Isolated moderate convection is from 07n to 11n W of 127w. 


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

Gentle to moderate winds and 1 to 3 ft seas will prevail in the 
Gulf of California through Thu. A cold front will reach northern 
baja Thu evening. Fresh westerly winds are likely to develop 
ahead of the front over the Gulf of California N of 29n Thu night
and Fri morning, then subside Fri as the front moves S and 
weakens. High pressure building NW of the region will then bring
fresh to strong NW winds to the central and southern Gulf of 
California this weekend, with seas building to about 5-7 ft. 

High pressure currently N of the area will continue to support 
moderate NW to N winds W of the Baja Peninsula accompanied by NW
swell of 8 to 10 ft seas N of 25n through tonight. This area of 
high seas will spread se across the offshore waters W of baja 
this evening then decay through Thu. The high pressure will 
become reinforced on Fri behind a weakening cold front, which 
will bring fresh to locally strong NW winds W of Baja California 
norte Fri through Fri night, spreading offshore the remainder of 
Baja California Fri night and Sat, with seas building to 8-9 ft.

Gulf of tehuantepec: northerly winds will briefly increase to 20-
25 kt late Thu night and Fri, with seas peaking around 8 ft 
during this Short Gap wind event.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central 
America, Colombia, and within 750 nm of Ecuador... 

Gulf of papagayo: strong NE winds will continue to pulse through 
and downstream of the Gulf of papagayo to near 91w through Sun 
morning, with seas building to 8-9 ft during the overnight and 
early morning hours.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
05n while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 05n. 

Remainder of the area... 

Strong high pressure centered well N of the area supports a ridge 
that extends se across the forecast waters to near the 
revillagigedo islands. This system will be reinforced by stronger
high pres arriving by Fri behind a dissipating cold front. The 
pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure associated 
with the ITCZ will result in fresh to strong trade winds across 
most of the tropical waters W of 115w and N of the ITCZ through 
the upcoming weekend.

Long period NW swell greater than 8 ft dominates the area N of 
09n and W of 110w. Strong high pres building N of the discussion
area will maintain an area of strong winds and seas to 12 ft 
roughly from 10n to 25n W of 120w Fri and Fri night, with the 
area of swell 8 ft or greater expanding S to 06n. This area of
swell and strong winds will slowly shift westward on Sat and 



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