Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 232204

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2005 UTC Wed Jan 23 2019

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...Special features...

...Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning... 

A strong cold front stretches from southern Louisiana to the 
coast of Mexico near 20n96.5w this afternoon. Northerly winds 
will begin to funnel into the Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight. 
The winds are anticipated to reach gale-force tonight, and 
remain near gale or gale through Saturday morning. The peak sea 
heights will be building to 8 feet tonight, and it is possible 
that the maximum sea heights may reach 14 feet in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec by Thursday afternoon. The sea heights should 
diminish rapidly on Saturday. A weaker Tehuantepec gap wind 
event is anticipated to occur on Monday morning. Please read the 
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers fzpn03 knhc/hsfep2 or at website 
https://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/text/miahsfep2.Shtml for further 

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

A surface trough extends from 06n77w to 04n81w to 04n92w. The 
ITCZ continues from 04n92w to 04n107w to 07n129w. A surface 
trough is along 10n132w 07n134w 03n135w. The ITCZ resumes from 
06n134w beyond 04n140w. Scattered to numerous moderate and 
isolated strong rainshowers are within 300 nm to the north of 
the ITCZ between 102w and 136w.


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico... 

Gulf of california: the pressure gradient between ridging N of 
the area and a trough that is in NW Mexico is causing fresh to 
strong NW to N winds throughout the Gulf of California this 
morning. These winds will continue through early Monday with 
peak seas near 8 ft.

Gulf of tehuantepec: a strong cold front, that is moving through 
the Gulf of Mexico now, will induce a gap wind event in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec beginning tonight. Please read the special 
features section for details about gale-force wind conditions
and the corresponding sea heights.

The aforementioned surface pressure gradient also is producing 
fresh to strong NE winds in the zones W of Baja California. 
These winds will diminish to moderate breeze conditions by 
Thursday night and remain quiescent through Monday. No 
significant long-period swell is affecting the region.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador... 

Gulf of papagayo: a strong surface pressure gradient, that is 
driven by high pressure in the NW Atlantic Ocean, is supporting 
NE strong breeze conditions in the Gulf of papagayo. Peak seas 
are near 9 feet. Ship vriv3 reported NE 25 knots and 7 foot seas 
in the Gulf this morning. These winds, stronger during the late 
night and early morning hours, will continue through the 
weekend, before diminishing on Monday.

Gulf of panama: N to NE strong breeze conditions are occurring in
the Gulf of Panama. Ship c6fr3 reported NNE 35 kt winds this
morning, though it appears that their observations are biased
5-10 kt too high. The winds should drop to fresh breeze or lower
by Thursday.

Remainder of the area... 

A 1036 mb high pressure center is N of our area, near 37n131w.
The high pressure center is helping to promote NE to E trade 
winds of moderate to strong breeze conditions. The winds are 
highest near 15n130w, northeast of a surface trough. Peak seas 
are near 11 ft as observed by an altimeter pass this morning at 
1140z. The pattern should remain relatively stationary for the 
next three days before the trough and strong breeze winds lifts 
northward on Sunday and Monday. 

A moderate long-period NW swell event will reach our NW corner of
30n140w tonight. These 16-18 second waves will have 8 ft peak
seas, which will gradually push southeastward across the area
while gradually diminishing.



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