Tropical Weather Discussion

000 
axpz20 knhc 141556
twdep 

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1556 UTC Tue Aug 14 2018

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC. 

...Tropical waves...

A well defined tropical wave is along 118w-119w with a 1009 mb 
surface low along the wave at 11n118w. This system is moving W 
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in short
bands within 180 nm across the SW semicircle of the low. Showers and
thunderstorms continue to gradually become better organized
around this low, and environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next 
couple of days while the low moves westward.

   
...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

The monsoon trough extends from 8.5n78w to low pressure centered
near 11n118w. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is noted within 210 nm either side of the monsoon trough east of
110w.

...Discussion...

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico... 

Weak ridging is re-establishing across the waters east of Baja
California, supporting gentle to moderate NW flow and 3 to 5 ft
seas in the adjacent offshore waters. 

Moderate to fresh westerly gap winds were observed last night
into the northern Gulf of California, related to troughing over
the Colorado River valley. This likely diminished this morning,
and gentle se breezes are noted elsewhere across the Gulf of
California. Fresh gap winds and moderate to fresh southerly flow
will pulse across the northern Gulf over the next couple of
nights. 

Farther south, long period SW swell will move into the offshore
waters between Puerto Angel and Baja California sur through Wed,
with seas peaking at 7 to 10 ft Wed evening into Thu morning, 
and highest seas across the waters between Guatemala and Cabo 
Corrientes. This will produce very large and dangerous surf 
conditions along the coastlines and outer reefs with localized 
breaking waves 15-20 ft Wed through Thu morning. 

Looking ahead, fresh to strong gap winds are expected by Thu 
night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Gulf of papagayo: fresh gaps winds are expected during the
overnight hours through mid week followed by fresh nocturnal 
easterly flow through Fri morning. 

Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N
of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09n and 11n. 
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the 
monsoon trough through early next week. Long period S to SW swell
has spread into the regional waters overnight and has raised 
offshore seas to 6 to 8 ft on either side of the galapagos 
islands. A stronger and larger pulse of SW swell will move into 
the regional waters tonight. This next pulse of cross equatorial
swell will raise seas to 7-9 ft Wed through early Thu before 
slowly subsiding through Fri, and produce large and dangerous 
surf conditions along the coasts and outer reefs.

Remainder of the area...   

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Kristy is centered 
near 24n138w and estimated at 1014 mb. Recent scatterometer
showed winds near 20 kt across the NW quadrant. Seas are with 6 
to 8 ft within 150 nm. This low pres center is moving 10-15 kt 
and will continue this movement over the next few days and slowly
dissipate to a trough as it approaches 140w this evening.

Long-period cross-equatorial southerly swell, in the form of 7 
to 10 ft seas, will propagate N across the tropical waters S of 
20n E of 120w tonight through Thu, and then subside to less than
8 ft on Thu night. 

  
$$
Christensen


		
		

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